The New World Disorder

Multipolarity, Energy Realignment, and A.I

Alexei Petrovich Bogolyubov (1824-1896) - “Night Venice”

Introduction: The End of Unipolarity

In a seismic shift for U.S. foreign policy, Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared in a January 2025 interview with Megyn Kelly that “the world is multipolar” and that American strategy must adapt to this reality14. This admission—coming from a figure once emblematic of neoconservative ideals—marks a departure from decades of bipartisan consensus that positioned the U.S. as the unchallenged global leader.

The implications are profound: from energy markets reshaped by Russia’s victory in Ukraine to China’s dominance over critical minerals and supply chains, the Trump administration’s foreign policy is anchored in transactional realism and a blunt reassessment of national interest.

I. Marco Rubio’s Multipolar Worldview

1. The Death of Unipolarity

Rubio framed the post-Cold War unipolar moment as an “anomaly” rather than a sustainable norm14. His reasoning:

• “China and Russia act in their national interests. We must do the same.”

• The U.S. can no longer afford to subsidize a global order where allies free-ride on American security guarantees (e.g., NATO members failing to meet defence spending targets).

• Strategic Pragmatism Over Idealism: Partnerships will be forged not on shared values but on overlapping interests (e.g., countering China in the Indo-Pacific while tolerating authoritarian regimes elsewhere).

This aligns with Trump’s “reciprocity doctrine”—a transactional approach to trade, security, and diplomacy.

2. Russia’s Victory in Ukraine

Rubio bluntly stated that “Russia has won the war in Ukraine”.

Key points:

• “We lied to Ukrainians by suggesting they could push Russia back to pre-2014 borders. Now they’re trapped in a stalemate.”

• U.S. aid under Biden funded a “protracted conflict” that devastated Ukraine’s infrastructure and population.

• Negotiations are inevitable: Trump’s team seeks a deal that avoids further escalation but acknowledges Russia’s territorial gains.

For Rubio, the war exposed NATO’s hollow industrial base: “Russia produces 3x more arms than all NATO states combined”.